Friday, September 28, 2007

Yen breaking out?

My fundamental assertion here is that a breakout of the yen to fresh 52 week highs would have bearish implications for the equity markets. Yen has been making a higher high and a higher low..

The fly in the ointment: Kiwi currency is rallying again after correcting sharply.

Market timing: Once the end of September window-dressing is over, it'll be interesting. Another factor to keep in mind: October is mostly when mutual funds sell their stocks/rebalance for tax purposes, and seasonally amongst the worst times to be in the market.

Revision ratios have started trending towards bearish territory as well.