Thursday, March 13, 2008

Dollar falls below 100 yen for first time since 1995: Confirmation of market bottom?

Just read the Marketwatch headline about Yen rising above 100 for the first time since 1995. Is this a confirmation of the market bottom? Here's what the blogosphere is saying about it.

  • Hulbert confirms that the bottom is in with the latest contrarian analysis update. The great Richard Russell is buying again. Buy! Buy! Buy!
  • Jeffrey Saut chimes in(March 10th article: “Monkey See, Monkey Do”) with Lowry's research regarding the significance of a 90% up day after a series of 90% down days in a bear market: a bull counterswing rally lasting at least two months.
  • Chris Perruna talks about the importance of a follow through day to confirm the 90% up day. Note that follow through days as defined by IBD have very poor statistical significance.
  • Michael Kahn defends his earlier bearish outlook based on detoriating fundamentals (trading volume, A/D line, and VIX ) but diplomatically recognizes the importance of waning downside momentum, and the solid upside move on Tuesday. The Market still not out of the woods.
  • Goldman strategists comment about selling the Fed relief rally. I presume the strategists have the big picture right, but aren't great market timers. Probably why this could be a two month long counter rally and within an entrenched bear market, and not a 'resumption' of a new upward bias.

Important thoughts to shape your Thursday..