Thursday, July 24, 2008

Did the financials make a bottom?

It’s always good to hear experts commenting on business cycles, economy, markets and commodities. Most unfortunately tend to be wedded to their ideas.

If a known talking head changes his or her viewpoint, it especially pays to listen to their arguments. A cheerful Nouriel Roubini talking about 1500 on the S&P 500 would jolly well crush the shorts (naked or otherwise). In a similar vein, Jim Rogers talking up $60 a barrel oil would probably have oil executives jumping off rooftops, not to mention becoming a brand new target for the Middle East hit men.

Anyways, Michael Kahn, Barron's excellent technical analyst, and a skeptical bear, had written earlier about finding no bottom in the financial sector. A week later, he’s changed his opinion, thanks in part to this excellent chart.

That sure looked like a capitulation bottom. While he is still talking of a long healing period, and a possible retest of the lows, at least one bear seems to have retracted his earlier opinion.

Yup. You heard that right. The bottom for financials is in.