Friday, June 26, 2009

Hugh Hendry on deflation.

I’ve linked to Hugh Hendry's CNBC commentary before on this blog. Found these interesting excerpts via Zero Hedge:

Non confirmation of a new bull: Since early March the price of risk assets has again risen considerably; the Yuan has gone sideways. Perhaps the Chinese don't want to re-price their scarce exports amidst the economic weakness? I see this as a non-confirmation of the move in equities and commodities and it reinforces my bearish slant on the year. However, I happily contend that should the Yuan begin to appreciate once more and establish a new high vs. the dollar then I am just plain wrong with risk aversion and I will change the Fund’s posture; but so far it has been almost a year and nothing.

Deflationary trade: over the last couple of weeks we began purchasing out of the money call options on the current 30 year US Treasury bond. Do not be too concerned, we have only used about 20 basis points of the Fund’s NAV on such option premium so far. However it is our intention to add to this amount should the elevated levels of fixed income volatility subside. Given the capacity of this market to thrash around from extremes, it is not unrealistic to imagine that yields could match their lows of just six months ago. Should this happen before the year end, our options would payout 14 times our investment.

Read the complete document below!

Hat tip: Zero Hedge

blog comments powered by Disqus