Friday, May 29, 2009

A bullish setup.

So I twittered this message yesterday end of the day:

Watch out! Looks like next week will decide how the month shapes up. Looks bullish. #MKT

I was basically looking at this chart courtesy Bespoke :

Well, we finished up yesterday. I thought it would be interesting to see what the average performance would look like over the next week, and next month, if over the next day the markets were up. I took the subset and here’s what I got:

4 out of 5 times, the markets ended up higher over the next week and next month . Even if you exclude the extreme outliers, or take the median, the conclusion is still bullish. (Small data sample setups like these are always suspect. But this does tend to agree nicely with a "rally till July" which I suspect is how events might be unfolding. )

PS: I had actually written this up last night but somehow missed posting it.

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